There are strong indications that the newly elected lawmakers in the Senate and House of Representative members from the North East, South East and the South West geopolitical zones have started flexing political muscles over which zone produces the 9th National Assembly leadership.
In line with tradition, the Clerk of the National Assembly, Alhaji Muhammed Sani-Omolori, will on June 9, 2019 read the proclamation letter of President Muhammadu Buhari at the plenary to signify the inauguration of the 9th National Assembly.
After the inauguration, which also signifies end of the 8th National Assembly, the clerk will call for nominations from senators. By the Senate rules, only 38 senators need to be present to form a quorum. The newly elected senators will then elect both the Senate president and the deputy Senate president, while the House of Representatives members will elect the Speaker and the deputy Speaker as well.
LEADERSHIP Sunday recalls that the All Progressives Congress (APC) had planned to have Senators Ahmed Lawan (APC, Yobe North) and George Akume (APC, Benue North West) in 2015 as the Senate president and deputy respectively, and Femi Gbajabiamila as Speaker.
However, the party’s decision to throw up Lawan and Gbajabiamila as Senate president and Speaker respectively led to schism among APC lawmakers, enabling the PDP to capitalise on the division to determine the outcome of June 9, 2015 elections in the National Assembly.
In what could be described as the perfect coup d’etat, Senator Bukola Saraki and Hon. Yakubu Dogara defied orders of their then party, APC, by emerging Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
It was learnt that while several high ranking senators and House of Representatives members of the North East and South West extractions are mobilizing to again project Lawan and Gbajabiamila for the Senate president and Speaker respectively, some senators of the South East and South-South have sounded a warning against such a move.
A senator-elect from South East who spoke with LEADERSHIP Sunday on condition of anonymity yesterday said that what happened to the APC with the emergence of Saraki, Ekweremadu and Dogara could reoccur this year if the party decides to repeat its mistakes.
He said senators, especially those of the opposition parties, are already talking to one another and even grouping with the sole aim of garnering block votes which they would give to a pliable APC senator to emerge as Senate president.
‘’The only way by which APC can avoid the repeat of Saraki-Ekweremadu phenomenon this year is to zone the Senate president or House of Reps speaker to the South East.
‘’Although APC has suspended Rochas Okorocha, we still have Orji Uzo Kalu standing. We have Senator Benjamin Uwajumogu (APC, Imo north) who was named as member/Secretary of the APC convention committee. He was among the ten senators that staged a walk-out of the Senate plenary in protest against Senate resolution reordering 2019 election sequence on February 14, 2018. His election was only declared inconclusive, but he will make it back to the Senate.
‘’Let APC zone the Senate president seat to the South East if it truly wants all-inclusive government or government of national unity. The defunct NPN zoned the speaker to the South East during the Second Republic. Ume Ezeoke of NPP was presented and elected by NPN. A Cross River person, Senator Joseph Wayas was elected Senate president. That made Nigerians feel a sense of belonging,’’ he said.
But a high ranking senator from the North West geopolitical zone told LEADERSHIP Sunday that the Senate president would go to the North East, while the speaker’s seat can be zoned to South East if there are House of Reps members with experience from the area.
‘’The North East has so many high ranking senators. We have Senators Ahmed Lawan, Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf (Taraba South), Danjuma Goje and Mohammed Ali Ndume, who was the APC Presidential Campaign Council Northeast Zonal Director.
‘’Besides, they deserve the seat as compensation for consistent high turnover of large votes cast for the APC. Ndume was suspended (from the 8th Senate) because he was defending President Buhari’s appointment and policies. He mobilised the North East to cast high votes for Buhari.
‘’The South-South has Oshiomhole as the APC national chairman already, but the Deputy Senate President can be zoned to the zone because of Senator Omo-Agege or Senator Akpabio in case he secures his mandate later on. The deputy speaker can still remain in the South West. Of course, the North West and South West should be contented with the slots of president and vice president of the country.
‘’Senate leader or House leader’s seat can be given to the North Central, too. I think the North Central can take a holiday for now over National Assembly leadership. They were deputy Senate president through Senator Ibrahim Mantu, Senate President through Senator David Mark for eight years in addition to Senator Bukola Saraki’s four years’’, the senator stated.
Meanwhile, there are indications that some ranking senators from the South West are positioning themselves for the positon of deputy Senate president, a move that will endanger the aspiration of Gbajabiamila to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives.
Among the South West senators eyeing the deputy Senate president seat are Senator (Professor) Ajayi Boroffice (Ondo State), Senator Oluremi Tinubu (Lagos State) and former Senate leader, Senator Teslim Folarin (Oyo State).
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Senator Gbenga Amosun was also a contender until the APC suspended him from the party recently. However, some keen watchers say Amosun has what it takes to stage a Saraki-type coup d’etat against the APC’s preferred candidates for the Senate president or deputy Senate president seats.
‘’Governor Amosun has the money and the political clout to upstage the APC preferred candidates. Once he is able liaise with the opposition in like manner of Saraki, he can succeed’’, the person said.
In all this arrangement, there is the factor of the APC national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. His wife has signified intention to contest for the deputy Senate president, and she is most likely to be favoured by the party considering his husband installed Oshiomhole as the APC national chairman.
Tinubu will find it difficult to support Gbajabiamila’a ambition to be speaker and at the same time sponsor his wife for deputy Senate president. He would have to choose one, and his natural choice is easy to guess.
The aspirations of Governor Okorocha, Orji Uzo Kalu and Senator Benjamin Uwajomogu for Senate president are also shaky because of some factors.
While Okorocha has been suspended by the APC for anti-party activities, Orji’s election is still in contention. Senator Mao Ohuabunwa (PDP Abia North) who contested against him disclosed on Friday at a press briefing that the declaration of Orji as senator-elect for Abia North Senatorial District in the last Saturday National Assembly election by the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC) was fraught with illegality.
Ohunabumwa, who defeated Orji Uzor Kalu in the senatorial race in 2015, said there was nowhere the returning officer for the 2019Â election, Dr Charles Anumudu, officially announced the winner of the election, which means it may be inconclusive.
The election of Senator Uwajumogu was declared by INEC as inconclusive. This came two days after the INEC office in Isiala Mbano Local Government Area (LGA) in the senatorial district was set ablaze by persons suspected to be political thugs.
INEC said that a fresh election would be held in three of the six LGAs that make up Uwajumogu’s senatorial district, which are Isiala Mbano, Ihitte Uboma and Obowo. INEC also disclosed that election would be conducted in six poling units in Okigwe and Onuimo LGAs.
These underlying factors are seriously endangering the chances of the South East to prospect for the Senate president seat this year unless they can resolve their issues before June 9, 2019.
Another twist to the whole permutations is playing out in the South South. On Friday, Justice Valentine Ashi of the FCT High Court ordered INEC not to issue certificate of return to Chris Ekpenyong who was earlier declared winner of Akwa Ibom North senatorial district. Ekpenyong contested against Senator Akpabio on February 23. This has kept alive Akpabio’s aspiration to be the next Senate president.
Just as the opposition senators-elect are making their calculations, watching to capitalize on APC’s mistakes as well as laying ambush where necessary for the ruling party, some newly elected members of the House of Representatives are making similar moves too.
The likes of Hon. Abdulrazak Namdas and Hon. Muhammed Tahir Monguno are trying to position themselves in such a way that should the position of the Speaker be zoned to the North-West, they will throw in their hats in the ring.
Namdas, who is from Adamawa State, is currently the spokesperson of the Dogara-led House. He represents Jada/ Mayo Belwa/Ganye/Toungo federal constituency (PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar’s constituency). He has made known his intention to run for speaker of the 9th House.
Hon Monguno, on the other hand, is from Borno State and represents Monguno/Marte/Nganzai federal constituency. He is a three-term senator and chairs the committee on Agricultural Production and Services.
These permutations regardless, where the position of speaker is eventually zoned to will largely be dependent on which zone produces the next Senate president. It is expected that the APC will zone these positions to other geo-political zones beside the North West for balance.
Notably, President Muhammadu Buhari has vowed to make tough decisions to safeguard the future of the country during his second tenure. He will largely depend on the cooperation of both chambers of the National Assembly to achieve any laudable reforms.
The frosty Senate-presidency relationship which caused late passage of the budget, defacing or paddling of the budget, refusal to approve some key appointments like the EFCC chairman, etc, will undoubtedly cause the President Buhari and the APC to be circumspect in the choice of the Senate president and the Speaker of House of Representatives come June 9, 2019.
The ruling APC has 64 senators-elect so far, while the main opposition PDP has 41. Another political party, the Young Progressives Party (YPP) has one senator-elect.
INEC has declared 106 senators-elect so far. Three Senate polls are yet to be concluded in Plateau, Kogi and Imo states.
Due to the usual high turnover in the National Assembly, LEADERSHIP Sunday confirm that 64 serving senators and 151 members of the House of Representatives would not be returning to the 9th National Assembly. About the same numbers did not return to the National Assembly after the 2015 elections.
However, 45 senators and 209 members are returning to the federal legislature, according to the results of the elections released so far by INEC.
