The World Bank has disclosed that about 9.4 million people could become climate migrants in Nigeria by 2050. This disclosure was contained in a new World Bank’s report, Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries.
The report stated that internal climate migration is unavoidable but the effects differ from one country to another due to how climate factors interact with demographic and socio-economic factors at the local level.
“No country in West Africa is immune to internal climate migration, but the scale in each country will depend on how the climate factors interact with demographic and socio-economic factors at the local level.
“Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario,” the report read.hb
The report stated that there would be a more pessimistic scenario over an optimistic scenario, with Nigeria having the highest mean number of internal climate migrants of 8.3 million people by 2050.
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The report read, “Of the West African coastal countries, Nigeria is projected to have the highest mean number of internal climate migrants under the pessimistic scenario by 2050 (8.3 million) far ahead of Senegal (0.6 million) and Ghana (0.3).
“However, smaller countries, such as Benin, also exhibit high internal climate migration figures as a percentage of their total population (1.62 per cent for Benin compared to 1.93 per cent for Nigeria and with Senegal achieving the highest percentage at 1.98 per cent).”
According to the report, climate in-migration will occur more in the Sahel region like northern Nigeria.
“Climate in-migration hotspots are projected to emerge in the Sahel because of increases in water availability and pasturage. These results must be interpreted against the low baseline of water availability in the region. South-central Mauritania, southeastern Mali, and northern Nigeria will be large climate in-migration hotspots in the area,” the report added.
The report further stated that affected states in northern Nigerian would include Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto, which are areas of high poverty incidence.
