This is the concluding part of my discuss on the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and the 2023 presidential elections. You may wish to read parts 1 and 2 at: https://infotrustng.com/permutations-amp-pyo-part/ and https://infotrustng.com/permutations-amp-pyo-part-2/
if you missed them.
In this final part, I will like to realistically show that should Pastor Yemi Osinbajo (PYO) get the APC ticket, then that will be the easiest of his tasks if he will return to Aso Rock, as president of the Federal Republic.
Boulders on his path to the presidency:
(1) It’s the Economy, stupid!
In a throw-back to the Clintonesque election battle cry of 1988 in the US, the major obstacle that PYO will have to overcome to win Aso Rock in his own right is the poor state of the Nigerian economy, particularly as it affects ‘average Nigeria’. The argument can be made of the initiatives that PYO has fronted in the Buhari administration such as trader moni etc., but the reality on ground is that expenses have long surpassed income in many households.
So, whether it is PYO, Rochas Okorocha, Orji Uzor Kalu, Rotimi Amaechi or even Asiwaju Tinubu, any one who picks up the APC ticket will have to contend with the anger of average Nigeria on the state of the economy. Truth we cannot escape is that despite APC’s 7 years of foundational repairs, the effect of work so far done has not permeated to the average Nigerian household.
Inflation and lack of large
scale production continues to wreck havoc on the value of the Naira, therefore on each family’s disposable income. Home keepers groan under the strain of constantly rising prices of food, bread winners wonder what more to do to provide minimal comfort for their families, as the value of each Naira they earn shrinks regularly.
The irony is that some even now pine for the ‘PDP economy’ which was primarily built on corruption induced patronage, where there was a ‘better FX rate’, “more money in people’s pockets’ etc. Forget the reality that the ‘PDP economy’ would have collapsed had Nigeria continued that way because it was unsustainable!
So, the first, and perhaps major boulder that would threaten a successful PYO run is the anger of Nigerians that things appear not to be better under the APC! How do you make an argument for a party that on the surface appears to have been husbandman of this morass? How do you show that these are foundational pains necessary to birth a strong, equitable future?
How well PYO can engage with, and earn the trust of average Nigeria on this state of the economy under his joint watch will account for at least 52% of his chances. Now add to that mix a growing army of young, first time voters, many of whom had no personal experience of the profligacy of the PDP era, and you see the clear dangers ahead for the APC.
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(2) Jagabanistas. Should PYO pick up the ticket of the APC in spite of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s long-standing preparations and desire, he should expect a backlash from the leader’s ardent supporters (Jagabanistas). Forget any public display of rapprochement that would happen should PYO beat Tinubu to the ticket, such a loss by Tinubu will have dire political consequences. From adequate funding to valuable local political contacts, to deliberate lack of collaboration and/or acts of sabotage etc. And we have seen it play out before.
The easy route that Moshood Abiola had in the defunct SDP in 1992 where he chose his primary rival (Babagana Kingine) as his running mate to unite the party cannot avail PYO, because there cannot be two south-westerners on the same national ticket. If you remember that Clinton and Gore pulled it off in the US in 1988, remember also that It took over 350 years of stable democracy for a South/South presidential ticket to emerge and win in the USA!
Remember the Edu/Sarumi imbroglio that gifted the governorship of Lagos to Sir Michael Otedola of the NRC? Expect such spoilers of the Yoruba hue, classic phd merchants who had long nailed their masts to Jagaban’s ship, and now left with outsider status in a potential PYO presidency.
It threatens to make a mess of the votes coalition that any presidential nominee of the APC would need to win as PYO who would be viewed by many as a ‘traitor’ to the Asiwaju cause.
How PYO and the party can assuage and mollify this hydra-headed problem will account for a third of the votes a PYO run would garner. Unfortunately, so far the Vice President has not shown himself to be a man-to-man political operative who could work a political crowd. And time is too short to begin to work on this skill set!
(3) PYO’s Bobo Nice personality. African politicians seem to come in hues and variants bordering on the shady. PYO is not of that nature. And like President Jonathan before him who was also not of that nature, this has the propensity for a presidency of political intrigues and conflicts. Despite PYO’s brilliance, academic and professional achievements, despite 7 years of good work as Vice President politics being a rough and tumble vocation, he might struggle as president on the political part of governing calculus. Remember that when he acted before as President, he had one Asiwaju Tinubu firmly in his corner, in case you want to reference that!
A typical example can be found in the Jonathan presidency when, despite having a PhD holder as president, he became easily overwhelmed by political hawks whose only language is political domination and personal gain. We saw how well that turned out for us as a nation. (No disrespect to the former president intended, please). We also once had a tough-talking soldier man return to power after many years in the doldrums, who was not a politician. How well did that work out for him and us in the end?
Let me conclude this mini-series this way: for many vocal professionals and some youth, PYO appears the ideal president Nigeria should have, post President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB), because in that narrative rests most of what these professionals see as the weakness of PMB – vigour, communications skills, swift decision making etc. Worrying question though, is what is the aggregation of their number, politics being a game of numbers? Would this nascent coalition be willing and/or able to pull out all stops to reduce the expected shenanigans of their hardened political operative rivals?
That my dear readers would determine whether PYO, if he get his party’s ticket, would win Aso Rock.
My next instalment on 2023 Permutations is on Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the first part is titled: SERUBAWON TACTICS. You do not want to miss it!?
(C) Adewale Adeniji 12022022.
(Disclosure: This writer is a card carrying member of APC)
