I am not a soothsayer, but I know how to read political undercurrents. I do not know who will clinch APC’s presidential ticket, but I no know who will not.
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) will not, and it will entirely be his fault. Not if those doing the party leader’s bidding have anything to do with it! I venture to explain.
Post 2015 elections and the PDP era, BAT was thought to have the world at his feet. He it was that the narrative credited with APC’s stunning victory. And he basked in the accolade even when this was not entirely true. With it came the innocuous title of “APC Leader”.
He has his part in that victory no doubt, but to take credit as he continues to do, that is an Omo Eko braggadocio that has come to bite him in the rear. [Rather reminds one of the folklore of leading the elephant to the village square to be crowned King]
Added to the narrative above is that one that BAT single-handedly picked the sitting Vice President! When that too was not how it played out! Yes, he had to put forward Professor Osinbajo’s name, but was it voluntary? Governors Ibikunle Amosun (president Buhari’s whisperer. If you know, you know) and Rauf Aregbesola both know what really happened, and it is not how it is recounted in Chief Bisi Akande’s autobiography. The president asked for 3 names for consideration but BAT (not the Action Congress caucus of the merger) submitted just one, and by so doing snookered the new party’s nominee (Buhari) who was left with no choice because the party was almost running out of time to submit INEC’s nomination form. When you treat a noted military strategist that way, you should expect a recompense. No?
BAT’s sense of entitlement, borne out of the loss of what he thought was a cardinal principle of the parties’ merger – the Vice Presidency for him (again not for the AC or APP, other coalition partners but for him personally) led to a lot of political miscalculations and missteps on his part that put the in-coming president on guard.
Then the 2015 inaugural speech of President Buhari happened.
Remember the punch-line from that speech? “I belong to everybody, I belong to no one?”. That yes.
Many chuckled and commented on it, but what most failed to notice was the president’s set jaw as he uttered those administration-defining words. Go and watch that clip again if you doubt me. One can write a treatise on how those very words have also affected the perceived quality of the APC’s presidential stewardship thus far! I digress.
That, my friends, began the slow but detailed process of putting BAT in his place. It is a project 7 years in the making. And it’s gestation period is coming to an end.
It is not my story to tell, but soon Nigerians will have the full measure of APC’s insider arguments and quarrels from the nominations for President Buhari’s first cabinet (remember how long that took? So long that there’s now a constitutional amendment to forestall such every happening again!), to policy choices along the way. Remember the failure to renew Tunde Fowler’s tenure at the FIRS among other slap downs? Ok.
Situate also in this mix two recent happening in the party: (1) the multifarious declarations by party members of Southern extraction for the presidency with payment of the N100m fee to boot, and (2) the out of the blue declaration by APC’s chairman a few days ago that the party had not yet zoned it presidency to the South?
Believe me when I say to you that the main target is BAT, to call the bluff of a possible spoiler act,
when he does not get that ticket.
I will explain both plays – (1) many presidential hopefuls from the South. Aim is to see if BAT’s vote haul can be depressed in the South during the primaries. And see if another Southerner would garner enough strong support to be positioned as a strong alternative. All this to neutralise expected fall out from
BAT’s political machine, post-primaries. If, for example, another Southerner can garner enough votes to lead BAT in a round of voting, or come a very very close second, that horse will ride. Votes will be mobilised towards that alternative candidate and BAT’s race would have been over.
(2) Where “1” above proves unlikely, in will come the second game play: a dark horse candidate from the North. Anyone still thinking Kogi’s Governor is a joker? If not him, then have you not heard the testing of the waters of the name of a retired Army general being touted as a unifying candidate? Someone currently serving Nigeria in Benin Republic?
So, the South may lose out completely in the permutations for 2023 because the decision had been taken to take BAT out. Why is this probable, the South losing out, even if this was not the party’s preferred outcome?
Because the cold political calculation is that it will be easier to pitch two northerners (PDP is likely to pick a northerner) against each other in the general election and still win; than risk a Southerner who may be compromised in his base by spoiler votes! That is the long and short of Adamu’s recent play.
It has nothing to do with not trusting the South. It is a cold political calculation that the party is greater than one man. And that the gains it believes Nigeria has had for the last 7 years will not fall into the hands of the PDP by default because of a weakened Southern nominee.
Now, why would this be the fault of BAT?
Because of the way he knows to play politics. Harangue your way into relevance and dominate every thing. That is the Lagos play, from after he became the choice of the Afenifere for the Lagos Round Office, to their separation, divorce and everything that has happened thereafter. That may work in Lagos, but a wrong play for a nation as diverse as Nigeria. You cannot divide and conquer. You have to negotiate power. There are others who equally think themselves as qualified, if not better qualified!
What should have been his own by acclamation is now up in the air because of the perception of persona he has created in the mind of other players, as explained above.
BAT’s camp can read the mood and body language of Aso Rock. This is why it is so galling for BAT’s camp, the audacity of hope of a sitting VP to choose to adopt a different play book and put himself forward. That is why I had said in a previous article that the Vice President will see pepper, as he is currently being vilified.
But what do you reckon this sitting VP knows, being so close to the seat of power that will make him stick out his neck, other than to position himself knowing that BAT’s life-long ambition is going nowhere?
31st of May 2022 is a few weeks away. And as a week is a long time in politics, the dynamics may yet change and this writer proved wrong. But I wager not!
