The theatre of contestation in the nation’s political terrain moves to the National Assembly. GABRIEL ATUMEYI looks at the issues brewing in the Senate
As the 2019 general elections is rounding off, all eyes are now fixated on how the leadership of the National Assembly will emerge.
It is no surprise that the intrigues and wranglings would be this intense given the scenario that played out last four years, when Bukola Saraki and some APC members, crossed the political aisle to strike an alliance with the PDP bloc in the senate, and in the process ceding the deputy senate presidency to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
An intransigence which the APC has accused of being responsible for its not too excellent performance in governance and to avert a repeat of the imbroglio of the post 2015, the APC has been drumming the need for party discipline to its members.
At a recent meeting between the leadership of the APC and elected- House of Representatives members to press on them the necessity of the party dominating key positions in the ninth National Assembly.
His words: “This time around, we must ensure we have a leadership of the national assembly that shares the vision of the executive. Although we speak of separation of power, but there is only one government and unless the various arms pursue the same agenda, it is difficult for the executive to realise its purpose because legislative backing is often required for executive actions.
“So I will expect that you bear in mind that we are one family joined together as shown in our broom, we share a common commitment to bail Nigeria out of the condition in which we found ourselves in 2015.
“And that you have the numbers and will use those numbers to ensure that we have a leadership that commands the trust and respect of all the members of the House of Representatives. There will be contestation and debate but we have to agree, and once you agree, you move forward,” he said.
Later, in the same day, President Muhammadu Buhari hosted state governors and senators-elect of the APC to a dinner at the presidential villa, in which he intimated them of the deplorable executive-legislative relationship of the past four years which has resulted in delay in passing the annual budget by the National Assembly.
He said “This is my fifth and last time of standing for an election, I’ ll like to leave something behind, and what I want to leave cannot be successfully done without your support.
“That is why I am seeking your support. What happened in the last senate is regrettable because I still feel it shouldn’t take seven months to pass a budget. You have a very serious job ahead of you.
“So what I am appealing for, is that any major decision you are going to take, please reflect more on the country than on yourself.”
Lawan Versus Ndume
The main contenders for the Senate President seat has now narrowed down from the initial quadruple of senators Danjuma Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Ahmed Lawan, Ali Ndume to just the Senators from Yobe north and Borno south.
Even though it is now clear that the party has settled for Lawan, Ndume has shown no sign of backing down, accusing Oshiomhole of insisting on Lawan against the wishes of many elected APC Senators.
Ndume like Lawan, is considered a ranking member of the senate having spent eight years in the House of Representatives and eight years in the senate so far, and was the Senate Majority leader in the eighth Senate until he was impeached by the APC senators in January of 2017.
Lawan on the other hand, is considered one of the highest ranking members in the Second with a clean record and a demonstrated loyalty to President Muhammadu Buhari.
He was the choice of the APC leadership in 2015 before Saraki outwitted them to emerge as Senate President. Both senators enjoy goodwill among their colleagues but Ndume who is also a self-professed Buharist was once a member of the PDP and has shown a streak for stoking controversy, as against the gentlemanly disposition of Lawan.
Lawan also seems to enjoy the goodwill of the APC national leader, Bola Tinubu and with Oshiomhole at the helm of the party, delivering Lawan as Senate President is a priority. But political watchers believe that a character like Ndume in alliance with Saraki and his men could replicate the stunt of 2015.
Deputy Senate President, Hazy
It is now known that the APC has zoned the Senate Presidency to the North-east, what has not been finalised is which zone would produce the Deputy Senate President. For the ruling party not to have announced the zone for this opposition yet indicates that there are still on-going horse trading behind the scene.
But analysts are predicting that the Deputy Senate seat would go to the North-central, South-south or the South-east. But there are also speculations that Oluremi Tinubu, the wife of the Jagaban is also in the race for the Deputy Senate President.
Read Also:
She is also considered a high ranking senator but any attempt to give it to her will jeopardise the zoning arrangement and lead to more crisis in the APC. One man who has not hidden his aspiration for that position is Orji Uzor Kalu who is from the South-east. A two time governor of Abia and a former member of the Federal House of Representatives in the defunct third republic. Kalu has been adamant that the position should come to the region and that he would not tolerate any backdoor power play within the party that would deprive his zone of that position.
An advocacy group, Igbo Youth Assembly Worldwide (IYAW) has since joined the campaign for the Deputy Senate Presidency to be zoned to the South-east
as part of APC’s drive to ensure that all zones are carried along in the country.
Another senator that may become the deputy senate president if it is zoned to the South-south is senator Omo-Agege.
The senator representing Delta Central shot to national limelight following the events that heralded the whisking away of the mace, the Senate’s symbol of authority by some thugs. He then defied the Senate leadership and continued to attend sittings even after he had been suspended. He is seen as a Buhari loyalist and although Omo-Agege has not publicly declared his interest in running for the position of the deputy Senate President, senators loyal to him say he is interested.
PDP Poised To Repeat 2015 Feat
The PDP came out strong against the position of the APC, which says the party intends to dominate all key positions in the national assembly. The PDP declared that its elected senators and members of the lower house could seek election into any presiding office of both chambers of the national assembly.
The PDP seems set to repeat their 2015 feat by exploiting cracks in the ruling APC. Currently the PDP have 41 senatorial seats as against the APC’s 65 seats. In 2015, the APC secured 61 seats in the red chamber before the PDP infiltrated their ranks to secure the office of the deputy senate president for Senator Ike Ekweremadu. It has been revealed that Saraki is bent on using Senators-elect of the PDP to negotiate the seat of the deputy Senate for the party like he succeeded in doing while he was in APC.
It is clear that what the PDP wants is to have someone in the APC that would guarantee them the seat of the deputy senate president, so that they can back the person with their bloc vote. Ekweremadu or another Senator from their fold may be presented if any opportunity is seen.
As the high level intrigues continue to play out, with senator Ali Ndume and Senator Danjuma Goje, being former PDP members and having good rapprochement with the out-going senate president, Bukola Saraki, there are those who opine that there may be a last minute upset in the ruling party’s political projection as the PDP could strike a deal with any willing aggrieved APC faction of the senators-elect.
2023 Game
There are those who see the controversies and intrigues surrounding the selection of the leadership of the National Assembly as part of the 2023 politics. That the APC is trying to lay a foundation that gives them the freedom to orchestrate a smooth transition to a post-Buhari era. Some even believe that Bola Tinubu may be setting the stage for the eventual succession of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to the Presidency to be as smooth as possible.
So having Ahmed Lawan at the helm of the Senate, a man he had designated for the job in 2015 and Femi Gbajabiamila at the reins of the House of Representatives, and if he succeeds to make his Wife, Oluremi Tinubu, the deputy Senate President, it would be a big victory for any 2023 game plan.
Jide Ojo, a public affairs analyst, who spoke to LEADERSHIP Sunday, said the intrigues are still unraveling but that if matters are not well managed, the APC might be shooting itself in the foot again.
He said: “ For me, section 50 of the constitution is very clear, that the Senate and the house will elect for themselves leaders, Senate President and deputy senate president, speaker and deputy speaker. When you look at section 50, subsection A, that is what it says. So, whatever intrigue that is played now, will mean that the party which has majority of members, it is left to them to sort out but I hope APC would learn from history. It is said that once beaten, twice shy. If they are not very careful they may have a repeat of 2015.
“They may have to go into power sharing agreement with the opposition because you can see that the attempt to endorse a particular candidate as Senate President is not going down well with other aspirants and if the aggrieved aspirants decide to go and cocktail with the major opposition party, they may have a repeat of what happened in 2015.
“The constitution did not say that the party with majority will produce the leadership of the national assembly. It says they will elect for themselves, senate president and deputy senate president, speaker and deputy speaker. But this one that the APC leadership, particularly the chairman is saying they are going to take all the positions and that the only position that will be ceded to the opposition will be the public account, “he said.
For Ibekwe Erondu, a political analyst, the task before the leadership of the APC remains dicey “because any misstep will see it losing legislature to the opposition again.”
He added that while such scenario will be too embarrassing considering that it would be happening a second time, “the impact it will have on the country, economically, socially and politically can only be gauged by how far the actors will be willing to stretch the tussle ahead of the 2023 tussle.
“So, if the APC loses the National Assembly again, the upheaval will be too traumatic such that it could become too distracting for the polity. In same vein, there is the realistic concern of trying to avoid having a National Assembly that seems like an appendage of the executive.”
